You've heard the old joke how being a meteorologist is one of the few jobs where you can be wrong over and over again, yet still remain employed. Who can really predict the weather?

Regardless, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued their annual winter forecast, and it looks the like the Hudson Valley and much of the U.S. aren't going to see such a severe winter after all.

This refutes what the Old Farmer's Almanac predicted in September. 

The big culprit, (or maybe...savior, depending if you don't like cold winters) is a developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific. The last El Niño impacted world weather in the winter of 2015-16. If you remember, this lead to well above average temperatures Christmas Day 2015. 

An El Nino is created when the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean warm significantly. Past El Nino's have usually lead to slightly warmer, rainier winters in the Northeast.

If their predictions are true, this will continue a trend of warmer than average winters in the Hudson Valley.

NOAA has not released any information on snow fall predictions as of yet. The last two winters have been up and down in regards to snow, with long periods of dry weather, followed by heavy snowfall much later in the season than usual.Who could forget the Blizzard of March 2017?

Of course, this outlook comes the same day some Hudson Valley towns experienced an early snow, so like we always say...take this with a grain of salt. The Almanac could be right after all.