New York Could See Wild Weather Like The Great Blizzard Of 1888

Weather experts say a rare Super El Niño is now almost certain to develop, and New York could experience a year of unusual heat, storms, and unpredictable conditions.

Local weather expert Ben Noll is discussing the upcoming "Super El Niño."

100 Percent Chance Of Super El Niño

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts says here's a 100 percent chance of a powerful "Super" El Niño developing by November 2026.

In March, there was only a 55 percent chance of a Super El Niño.

This event could be one of the strongest Super El Niños ever, potentially rivaling 1877 and 2015.

The Fox Forecast Center says a prediction this strong this early in the season means this could be a weather event Americans are still talking about years from now.

What Does A Super El Nino Mean For New York?

For New York, a Super El Niño typically means a hotter-than-average summer followed by a warm but potentially storm-heavy winter.

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Some past Super El Niño events have pushed December temperatures into the 70s in New York.

It's the kind of pattern where you're sweating in October and then watching a nor'easter roll in by February.

Local Resident Remembers El Niño of 1877 and 1878

Local meteorologist and Washington Post contributor Ben Noll, who has been writing about this developing El Niño.

After publishing a piece about the catastrophic El Niño of 1877 and 1878, which contributed to global population losses of 3 to 4 percent, Noll received an email from a New Yorker whose grandmother had passed down a firsthand account of that era.

The woman told Noll that her grandmother's brother likely died in the summer of 1878 from a Super El Nino.

A decade later, during the Super El Niño of 1888, that same grandmother recalled sledding in June in Ulster County! June wasn't a typo!

According to Noll, there was also a blizzard in March of that year. The Great Blizzard of 1888 buried the Northeast under 30 to 50 inches of snow, with drifts reportedly reaching 30 to 40 feet in some areas.

"In Ulster County, wagons that had collected the snow dumped it into local ravines, she wrote," Noll wrote on Facebook. "Because of a cool spring that year, big piles in these shady hollows lasted for months."

Noll says this is a reminder that Super El Niño events don't follow a simple script. They can bring brutal heat, devastating storms, and weather so strange it gets passed down through generations as family legend.

Noll adds he'll have more specifics about what a Super El Niño means for the Hudson Valley soon.

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