Here’s What New York’s Fall Weather Will Look Like This Year
New expert data is revealing what weather New Yorkers should expect to see for the Fall.
Meteorological fall began September 1st. The astronomical start of fall, the autumnal equinox, arrives on Tuesday, September 22nd at 8:05 p.m. Eastern time.
Here's What To Expect From New York's Fall Weather This Year
If you're waiting for that first real crisp, cool fall day to arrive in the Hudson Valley, you might be waiting a little longer than usual this year.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center just released its three-month temperature outlook covering September through November. Temperatures across New York are expected to be above normal during the September through November period.
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The biggest driver is a strengthening "Super" El Niño in the tropical Pacific. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says there's a greater than 90 percent chance the event becomes very strong during the fall and winter.
We've covered what that means for this coming winter. In New York, a Super El Niño typically disrupts seasonal norms. During the winter, it leads to unseasonably warm temperatures, with a high risk for individual blockbuster snowstorms.
NOAA's maps show that while September may start with typical autumn conditions, October and November are likely to tip the scales, pushing the three-month average well above normal for the season.
AccuWeather forecasts that September may feel more like an extension of summer across parts of the Northeast, with above-average temperatures, high humidity and warm nights possible. Forecasters said it may be October before the first significant chilly air reaches the Northeast.
There is some good news for leaf peepers. The delayed arrival of cooler weather could have an upside for fall foliage. Sunny days combined with cooler nights can help produce more vibrant colors across the Northeast.
On the precipitation side, the Weather Service's seasonal outlook favors below-normal precipitation across much of New York and the Northeast.
A drier-than-average fall is the current prediction, though no forecast is guaranteed.
It's important to note that a warmer seasonal average doesn't mean every month will be warm. A few sharp cold spells can still occur while the overall three-month period ends above normal.
